{
 "question": "5 or more confirmed plague cases in Irkutsk Oblast before November 1, 2026?",
 "url": "https://themorningline.news/odds/5-or-more-confirmed-plague-cases-in-irkutsk-oblast-before-november-1",
 "category": "other",
 "as_of": "2026-10-12",
 "first_tracked": "2026-10-06",
 "license": "CC BY 4.0 — free to reuse with a link back",
 "note": "Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts (0-1). Rows with source 'backfill' are pre-tracking reference history from the market's own records, never published by us.",
 "outcomes": [
  {
   "name": "5 or more",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-10-06",
     "probability": 0.15,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-07",
     "probability": 0.145,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-12",
     "probability": 0.035,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
  }
 ]
}