{
 "question": "Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?",
 "url": "https://themorningline.news/odds/bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by-october-31",
 "category": "other",
 "as_of": "2026-10-05",
 "first_tracked": "2026-09-04",
 "license": "CC BY 4.0 — free to reuse with a link back",
 "note": "Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts (0-1). Rows with source 'backfill' are pre-tracking reference history from the market's own records, never published by us.",
 "outcomes": [
  {
   "name": "Yes",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-09-04",
     "probability": 0.09,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-12",
     "probability": 0.145,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-13",
     "probability": 0.155,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-14",
     "probability": 0.145,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-01",
     "probability": 0.075,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-02",
     "probability": 0.075,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-03",
     "probability": 0.075,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-04",
     "probability": 0.075,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-05",
     "probability": 0.065,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
  }
 ]
}