{
 "question": "Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 15?",
 "url": "https://themorningline.news/odds/bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by-september-15",
 "category": "other",
 "as_of": "2026-09-22",
 "first_tracked": "2026-09-02",
 "license": "CC BY 4.0 — free to reuse with a link back",
 "note": "Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts (0-1). Rows with source 'backfill' are pre-tracking reference history from the market's own records, never published by us.",
 "outcomes": [
  {
   "name": "Yes",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-09-02",
     "probability": 0.0135,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-03",
     "probability": 0.008,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-04",
     "probability": 0.006,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-05",
     "probability": 0.005,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-06",
     "probability": 0.0075,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-07",
     "probability": 0.0105,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-08",
     "probability": 0.008,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-09",
     "probability": 0.0085,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-10",
     "probability": 0.013,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-17",
     "probability": 0.0025,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-21",
     "probability": 0.0005,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-22",
     "probability": 0.0005,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
  }
 ]
}