{
 "question": "Base FDV above $2B one day after launch?",
 "url": "https://themorningline.news/odds/base-fdv-above-2b-one-day-after-launch",
 "category": "other",
 "as_of": "2026-10-04",
 "first_tracked": "2026-08-01",
 "license": "CC BY 4.0 — free to reuse with a link back",
 "note": "Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts (0-1). Rows with source 'backfill' are pre-tracking reference history from the market's own records, never published by us.",
 "outcomes": [
  {
   "name": "Yes",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-08-01",
     "probability": 0.57,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-02",
     "probability": 0.55,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-03",
     "probability": 0.55,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-04",
     "probability": 0.53,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-05",
     "probability": 0.515,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-06",
     "probability": 0.505,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-07",
     "probability": 0.505,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-08",
     "probability": 0.535,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-18",
     "probability": 0.52,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-19",
     "probability": 0.535,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-21",
     "probability": 0.565,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-22",
     "probability": 0.565,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-23",
     "probability": 0.565,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-24",
     "probability": 0.6,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-25",
     "probability": 0.595,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-26",
     "probability": 0.595,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-28",
     "probability": 0.58,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-29",
     "probability": 0.49,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-30",
     "probability": 0.5,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-03",
     "probability": 0.435,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-04",
     "probability": 0.43,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
  }
 ]
}