{
 "question": "Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before September 30, 2026?",
 "url": "https://themorningline.news/odds/friedrich-merz-out-as-chancellor-of-germany-before-september-30-2026",
 "category": "other",
 "as_of": "2026-09-22",
 "first_tracked": "2026-09-21",
 "license": "CC BY 4.0 — free to reuse with a link back",
 "note": "Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts (0-1). Rows with source 'backfill' are pre-tracking reference history from the market's own records, never published by us.",
 "outcomes": [
  {
   "name": "Yes",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-09-21",
     "probability": 0.0275,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-22",
     "probability": 0.0115,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
  }
 ]
}