{
 "question": "GDP growth in 2033?",
 "url": "https://themorningline.news/odds/gdp-growth-in-2033",
 "category": "econ",
 "as_of": "2026-08-09",
 "first_tracked": "2026-07-28",
 "license": "CC BY 4.0 — free to reuse with a link back",
 "note": "Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts (0-1). Rows with source 'backfill' are pre-tracking reference history from the market's own records, never published by us.",
 "outcomes": [
  {
   "name": "0.0% or Below",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-07-28",
     "probability": 0.115,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-29",
     "probability": 0.115,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-30",
     "probability": 0.115,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-31",
     "probability": 0.115,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-01",
     "probability": 0.105,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-02",
     "probability": 0.095,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-03",
     "probability": 0.115,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-04",
     "probability": 0.115,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-05",
     "probability": 0.115,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-06",
     "probability": 0.115,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-07",
     "probability": 0.115,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-08",
     "probability": 0.115,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-09",
     "probability": 0.115,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "name": "1.6% to 2.0%",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-07-28",
     "probability": 0.105,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-29",
     "probability": 0.105,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-30",
     "probability": 0.105,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-31",
     "probability": 0.105,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-01",
     "probability": 0.105,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-02",
     "probability": 0.07,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-03",
     "probability": 0.105,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-04",
     "probability": 0.105,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-05",
     "probability": 0.105,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-06",
     "probability": 0.105,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-07",
     "probability": 0.105,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-08",
     "probability": 0.105,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-09",
     "probability": 0.105,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "name": "1.1% to 1.5%",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-07-28",
     "probability": 0.115,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-29",
     "probability": 0.115,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-30",
     "probability": 0.105,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-31",
     "probability": 0.105,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-01",
     "probability": 0.105,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-02",
     "probability": 0.105,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-03",
     "probability": 0.105,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-04",
     "probability": 0.105,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-05",
     "probability": 0.105,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-06",
     "probability": 0.105,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-07",
     "probability": 0.105,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-08",
     "probability": 0.105,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-09",
     "probability": 0.105,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "name": "2.1% to 2.5%",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-07-28",
     "probability": 0.1,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-29",
     "probability": 0.105,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-30",
     "probability": 0.105,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-31",
     "probability": 0.105,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-01",
     "probability": 0.105,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-02",
     "probability": 0.075,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-03",
     "probability": 0.095,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-04",
     "probability": 0.095,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-05",
     "probability": 0.095,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-06",
     "probability": 0.095,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-07",
     "probability": 0.095,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-08",
     "probability": 0.095,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-09",
     "probability": 0.095,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "name": "6.1% or Above",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-07-28",
     "probability": 0.075,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-29",
     "probability": 0.075,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-30",
     "probability": 0.015,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-31",
     "probability": 0.025,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-01",
     "probability": 0.025,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-02",
     "probability": 0.02,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-03",
     "probability": 0.025,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-04",
     "probability": 0.025,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-05",
     "probability": 0.095,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-06",
     "probability": 0.085,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-07",
     "probability": 0.08,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-08",
     "probability": 0.08,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-09",
     "probability": 0.085,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "name": "2.6% to 3.0%",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-07-28",
     "probability": 0.095,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-29",
     "probability": 0.095,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-30",
     "probability": 0.095,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-31",
     "probability": 0.095,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-01",
     "probability": 0.095,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-02",
     "probability": 0.065,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-03",
     "probability": 0.085,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-04",
     "probability": 0.085,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-05",
     "probability": 0.085,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-06",
     "probability": 0.085,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-07",
     "probability": 0.085,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-08",
     "probability": 0.085,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-09",
     "probability": 0.085,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "name": "3.1% to 3.5%",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-07-28",
     "probability": 0.065,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-29",
     "probability": 0.065,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-30",
     "probability": 0.065,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-31",
     "probability": 0.065,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-01",
     "probability": 0.065,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-02",
     "probability": 0.045,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-03",
     "probability": 0.055,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-04",
     "probability": 0.055,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-05",
     "probability": 0.055,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-06",
     "probability": 0.06,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-07",
     "probability": 0.055,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-08",
     "probability": 0.055,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-09",
     "probability": 0.055,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "name": "0.1% to 0.5%",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-07-28",
     "probability": 0.035,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-29",
     "probability": 0.035,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-30",
     "probability": 0.105,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-31",
     "probability": 0.085,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-01",
     "probability": 0.085,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-02",
     "probability": 0.065,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-03",
     "probability": 0.055,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-04",
     "probability": 0.055,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-05",
     "probability": 0.055,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-06",
     "probability": 0.055,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-07",
     "probability": 0.055,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-08",
     "probability": 0.055,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-09",
     "probability": 0.055,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
  }
 ]
}