{
 "question": "How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?",
 "url": "https://themorningline.news/odds/how-many-launches-will-spacex-have-in-2026.html",
 "category": "other",
 "as_of": "2026-07-21",
 "first_tracked": "2026-07-07",
 "license": "CC BY 4.0 — free to reuse with a link back",
 "note": "Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts (0-1). Rows with source 'backfill' are pre-tracking reference history from the market's own records, never published by us.",
 "outcomes": [
  {
   "name": "Above 11",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-07-07",
     "probability": 0.925,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-08",
     "probability": 0.955,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-09",
     "probability": 0.965,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-10",
     "probability": 0.975,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-11",
     "probability": 0.975,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-12",
     "probability": 0.965,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-13",
     "probability": 0.985,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-14",
     "probability": 0.975,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-15",
     "probability": 0.975,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-16",
     "probability": 0.985,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-17",
     "probability": 0.985,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-18",
     "probability": 0.985,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-19",
     "probability": 0.985,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-20",
     "probability": 0.985,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-21",
     "probability": 0.985,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "name": "Above 12",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-07-07",
     "probability": 0.905,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-08",
     "probability": 0.905,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-09",
     "probability": 0.945,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-10",
     "probability": 0.935,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-11",
     "probability": 0.935,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-12",
     "probability": 0.86,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-13",
     "probability": 0.945,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-14",
     "probability": 0.935,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-15",
     "probability": 0.955,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-16",
     "probability": 0.965,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-17",
     "probability": 0.915,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-18",
     "probability": 0.94,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-19",
     "probability": 0.965,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-20",
     "probability": 0.925,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-21",
     "probability": 0.94,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "name": "Above 150",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-07-07",
     "probability": 0.525,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-08",
     "probability": 0.525,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-09",
     "probability": 0.54,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-10",
     "probability": 0.55,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-11",
     "probability": 0.675,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-12",
     "probability": 0.665,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-13",
     "probability": 0.695,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-14",
     "probability": 0.745,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-15",
     "probability": 0.695,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-16",
     "probability": 0.755,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-17",
     "probability": 0.74,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-18",
     "probability": 0.755,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-19",
     "probability": 0.755,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-20",
     "probability": 0.805,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-21",
     "probability": 0.825,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "name": "Above 13",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-07-07",
     "probability": 0.59,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-08",
     "probability": 0.56,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-09",
     "probability": 0.655,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-10",
     "probability": 0.555,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-11",
     "probability": 0.555,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-12",
     "probability": 0.505,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-13",
     "probability": 0.675,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-14",
     "probability": 0.645,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-15",
     "probability": 0.745,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-16",
     "probability": 0.84,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-17",
     "probability": 0.69,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-18",
     "probability": 0.745,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-19",
     "probability": 0.715,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-20",
     "probability": 0.605,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-21",
     "probability": 0.765,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "name": "Above 14",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-07-07",
     "probability": 0.16,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-08",
     "probability": 0.135,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-09",
     "probability": 0.23,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-10",
     "probability": 0.205,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-11",
     "probability": 0.185,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-12",
     "probability": 0.105,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-13",
     "probability": 0.195,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-14",
     "probability": 0.185,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-15",
     "probability": 0.2,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-16",
     "probability": 0.225,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-17",
     "probability": 0.145,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-18",
     "probability": 0.21,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-19",
     "probability": 0.205,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-20",
     "probability": 0.095,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-21",
     "probability": 0.13,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
  }
 ]
}