{
 "question": "How many launches will SpaceX have in Aug 2026?",
 "url": "https://themorningline.news/odds/how-many-launches-will-spacex-have-in-aug-2026",
 "category": "other",
 "as_of": "2026-08-09",
 "first_tracked": "2026-07-28",
 "license": "CC BY 4.0 — free to reuse with a link back",
 "note": "Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts (0-1). Rows with source 'backfill' are pre-tracking reference history from the market's own records, never published by us.",
 "outcomes": [
  {
   "name": "Above 10",
   "history": [
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     "date": "2026-07-29",
     "probability": 0.965,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-30",
     "probability": 0.965,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-31",
     "probability": 0.965,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-01",
     "probability": 0.965,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-02",
     "probability": 0.985,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-04",
     "probability": 0.975,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-05",
     "probability": 0.985,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-06",
     "probability": 0.975,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-07",
     "probability": 0.955,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-08",
     "probability": 0.955,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-09",
     "probability": 0.945,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "name": "Above 11",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-07-29",
     "probability": 0.895,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-30",
     "probability": 0.935,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-31",
     "probability": 0.915,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-01",
     "probability": 0.915,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-02",
     "probability": 0.955,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-03",
     "probability": 0.94,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-04",
     "probability": 0.955,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-05",
     "probability": 0.95,
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     "date": "2026-08-06",
     "probability": 0.95,
     "source": "tracked"
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    {
     "date": "2026-08-07",
     "probability": 0.94,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-08",
     "probability": 0.945,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-09",
     "probability": 0.935,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "name": "Above 12",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-07-28",
     "probability": 0.705,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-29",
     "probability": 0.765,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-30",
     "probability": 0.765,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-31",
     "probability": 0.735,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-01",
     "probability": 0.895,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-02",
     "probability": 0.855,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-03",
     "probability": 0.875,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-04",
     "probability": 0.865,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-05",
     "probability": 0.865,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-06",
     "probability": 0.855,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-07",
     "probability": 0.865,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-08",
     "probability": 0.835,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-09",
     "probability": 0.835,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "name": "Above 13",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-07-29",
     "probability": 0.55,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-30",
     "probability": 0.545,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-31",
     "probability": 0.495,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-01",
     "probability": 0.535,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-02",
     "probability": 0.585,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-03",
     "probability": 0.565,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-04",
     "probability": 0.525,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-05",
     "probability": 0.53,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-06",
     "probability": 0.525,
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    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-07",
     "probability": 0.565,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-08",
     "probability": 0.55,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-09",
     "probability": 0.545,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "name": "Above 14",
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     "date": "2026-07-29",
     "probability": 0.19,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-30",
     "probability": 0.175,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-31",
     "probability": 0.165,
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    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-01",
     "probability": 0.195,
     "source": "tracked"
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     "date": "2026-08-02",
     "probability": 0.145,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-03",
     "probability": 0.135,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-04",
     "probability": 0.175,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-05",
     "probability": 0.165,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-06",
     "probability": 0.15,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-07",
     "probability": 0.115,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-08",
     "probability": 0.115,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-09",
     "probability": 0.105,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "name": "Above 15",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-07-29",
     "probability": 0.045,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-30",
     "probability": 0.065,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-31",
     "probability": 0.035,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-01",
     "probability": 0.055,
     "source": "tracked"
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    {
     "date": "2026-08-02",
     "probability": 0.045,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-03",
     "probability": 0.055,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-04",
     "probability": 0.045,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-05",
     "probability": 0.045,
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     "date": "2026-08-06",
     "probability": 0.045,
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    {
     "date": "2026-08-07",
     "probability": 0.045,
     "source": "tracked"
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    {
     "date": "2026-08-08",
     "probability": 0.045,
     "source": "tracked"
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    {
     "date": "2026-08-09",
     "probability": 0.035,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
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   "name": "Above 16",
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    {
     "date": "2026-07-30",
     "probability": 0.025,
     "source": "tracked"
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     "date": "2026-07-31",
     "probability": 0.025,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-01",
     "probability": 0.015,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-02",
     "probability": 0.015,
     "source": "tracked"
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    {
     "date": "2026-08-03",
     "probability": 0.015,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-04",
     "probability": 0.015,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-05",
     "probability": 0.015,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-06",
     "probability": 0.015,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-07",
     "probability": 0.015,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-08",
     "probability": 0.015,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-09",
     "probability": 0.015,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
  }
 ]
}