{
 "question": "How many launches will SpaceX have in Oct 2026?",
 "url": "https://themorningline.news/odds/how-many-launches-will-spacex-have-in-oct-2026",
 "category": "other",
 "as_of": "2026-10-06",
 "first_tracked": "2026-10-01",
 "license": "CC BY 4.0 — free to reuse with a link back",
 "note": "Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts (0-1). Rows with source 'backfill' are pre-tracking reference history from the market's own records, never published by us.",
 "outcomes": [
  {
   "name": "Above 8",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-10-01",
     "probability": 0.91,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-02",
     "probability": 0.915,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-03",
     "probability": 0.915,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-04",
     "probability": 0.89,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-05",
     "probability": 0.895,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-06",
     "probability": 0.89,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "name": "Above 9",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-10-02",
     "probability": 0.845,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-03",
     "probability": 0.84,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-04",
     "probability": 0.855,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-05",
     "probability": 0.85,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-06",
     "probability": 0.745,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "name": "Above 10",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-10-01",
     "probability": 0.725,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-02",
     "probability": 0.695,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-03",
     "probability": 0.485,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-04",
     "probability": 0.425,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-05",
     "probability": 0.42,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-06",
     "probability": 0.2,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "name": "Above 11",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-10-01",
     "probability": 0.24,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-02",
     "probability": 0.21,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-03",
     "probability": 0.225,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-04",
     "probability": 0.18,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-05",
     "probability": 0.165,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-06",
     "probability": 0.095,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "name": "Above 12",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-10-01",
     "probability": 0.1,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-02",
     "probability": 0.095,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-03",
     "probability": 0.04,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-04",
     "probability": 0.025,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-05",
     "probability": 0.03,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-06",
     "probability": 0.035,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "name": "Above 15",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-10-01",
     "probability": 0.015,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-02",
     "probability": 0.015,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-03",
     "probability": 0.015,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-04",
     "probability": 0.015,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-05",
     "probability": 0.015,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-06",
     "probability": 0.015,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "name": "Above 13",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-10-01",
     "probability": 0.025,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-02",
     "probability": 0.03,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-03",
     "probability": 0.025,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-04",
     "probability": 0.015,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-05",
     "probability": 0.015,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-06",
     "probability": 0.015,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "name": "Above 14",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-10-02",
     "probability": 0.015,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-03",
     "probability": 0.015,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-04",
     "probability": 0.015,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-05",
     "probability": 0.015,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-06",
     "probability": 0.015,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
  }
 ]
}