{
 "question": "Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?",
 "url": "https://themorningline.news/odds/iran-charges-hormuz-fees-by-december-31",
 "category": "other",
 "as_of": "2026-10-04",
 "first_tracked": "2026-08-19",
 "license": "CC BY 4.0 — free to reuse with a link back",
 "note": "Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts (0-1). Rows with source 'backfill' are pre-tracking reference history from the market's own records, never published by us.",
 "outcomes": [
  {
   "name": "Yes",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-08-19",
     "probability": 0.57,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-20",
     "probability": 0.545,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-21",
     "probability": 0.455,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-25",
     "probability": 0.23,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-28",
     "probability": 0.215,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-29",
     "probability": 0.34,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-30",
     "probability": 0.27,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-03",
     "probability": 0.19,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-04",
     "probability": 0.165,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
  }
 ]
}