{
 "question": "Iran full airspace closure by December 31?",
 "url": "https://themorningline.news/odds/iran-full-airspace-closure-by-december-31",
 "category": "other",
 "as_of": "2026-09-04",
 "first_tracked": "2026-08-16",
 "license": "CC BY 4.0 — free to reuse with a link back",
 "note": "Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts (0-1). Rows with source 'backfill' are pre-tracking reference history from the market's own records, never published by us.",
 "outcomes": [
  {
   "name": "Yes",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-08-16",
     "probability": 0.295,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-17",
     "probability": 0.35,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-18",
     "probability": 0.325,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-19",
     "probability": 0.31,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-20",
     "probability": 0.31,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-21",
     "probability": 0.305,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-22",
     "probability": 0.28,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-23",
     "probability": 0.27,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-04",
     "probability": 0.275,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
  }
 ]
}