{
 "question": "Iran leadership change by October 31?",
 "url": "https://themorningline.news/odds/iran-leadership-change-by-october-31",
 "category": "other",
 "as_of": "2026-10-04",
 "first_tracked": "2026-09-02",
 "license": "CC BY 4.0 — free to reuse with a link back",
 "note": "Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts (0-1). Rows with source 'backfill' are pre-tracking reference history from the market's own records, never published by us.",
 "outcomes": [
  {
   "name": "Yes",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-09-02",
     "probability": 0.055,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-04",
     "probability": 0.055,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-05",
     "probability": 0.055,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-06",
     "probability": 0.055,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-21",
     "probability": 0.045,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-22",
     "probability": 0.045,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-23",
     "probability": 0.036,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-24",
     "probability": 0.032,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-01",
     "probability": 0.0295,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-02",
     "probability": 0.0245,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-03",
     "probability": 0.02,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-04",
     "probability": 0.0175,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
  }
 ]
}