{
 "question": "Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?",
 "url": "https://themorningline.news/odds/israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-november-15",
 "category": "politics",
 "as_of": "2026-11-04",
 "first_tracked": "2026-10-09",
 "license": "CC BY 4.0 — free to reuse with a link back",
 "note": "Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts (0-1). Rows with source 'backfill' are pre-tracking reference history from the market's own records, never published by us.",
 "outcomes": [
  {
   "name": "Yes",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-10-09",
     "probability": 0.715,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-11",
     "probability": 0.745,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-19",
     "probability": 0.695,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-20",
     "probability": 0.695,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-21",
     "probability": 0.685,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-22",
     "probability": 0.59,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-23",
     "probability": 0.545,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-11-04",
     "probability": 0.735,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
  }
 ]
}