{
 "question": "Manchin Senate combo: Rogers wins, Collins loses?",
 "url": "https://themorningline.news/odds/manchin-senate-combo-rogers-wins-collins-loses",
 "category": "politics",
 "as_of": "2026-09-28",
 "first_tracked": "2026-09-16",
 "license": "CC BY 4.0 — free to reuse with a link back",
 "note": "Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts (0-1). Rows with source 'backfill' are pre-tracking reference history from the market's own records, never published by us.",
 "outcomes": [
  {
   "name": "Rogers wins, Collins loses",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-09-15",
     "probability": 0.2,
     "source": "backfill"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-16",
     "probability": 0.1,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-17",
     "probability": 0.125,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-21",
     "probability": 0.15,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-22",
     "probability": 0.135,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-28",
     "probability": 0.1,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
  }
 ]
}