{
 "question": "OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?",
 "url": "https://themorningline.news/odds/openai-announces-it-has-achieved-agi-before-2027",
 "category": "other",
 "as_of": "2026-10-04",
 "first_tracked": "2026-09-04",
 "license": "CC BY 4.0 — free to reuse with a link back",
 "note": "Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts (0-1). Rows with source 'backfill' are pre-tracking reference history from the market's own records, never published by us.",
 "outcomes": [
  {
   "name": "Yes",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-09-04",
     "probability": 0.285,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-05",
     "probability": 0.255,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-23",
     "probability": 0.185,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-24",
     "probability": 0.155,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-25",
     "probability": 0.155,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-28",
     "probability": 0.175,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-29",
     "probability": 0.175,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-30",
     "probability": 0.175,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-03",
     "probability": 0.165,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-04",
     "probability": 0.165,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
  }
 ]
}