{
 "question": "OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.2T?",
 "url": "https://themorningline.news/odds/openai-ipo-closing-market-cap-above-1-2t",
 "category": "other",
 "as_of": "2026-10-12",
 "first_tracked": "2026-07-12",
 "license": "CC BY 4.0 — free to reuse with a link back",
 "note": "Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts (0-1). Rows with source 'backfill' are pre-tracking reference history from the market's own records, never published by us.",
 "outcomes": [
  {
   "name": "Yes",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-07-12",
     "probability": 0.63,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-20",
     "probability": 0.63,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-01",
     "probability": 0.605,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-02",
     "probability": 0.605,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-03",
     "probability": 0.605,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-04",
     "probability": 0.605,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-05",
     "probability": 0.605,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-06",
     "probability": 0.625,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-07",
     "probability": 0.585,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-08",
     "probability": 0.585,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-09",
     "probability": 0.585,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-10",
     "probability": 0.585,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-01",
     "probability": 0.64,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-02",
     "probability": 0.655,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-03",
     "probability": 0.645,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-05",
     "probability": 0.64,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-06",
     "probability": 0.635,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-07",
     "probability": 0.64,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-08",
     "probability": 0.63,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-09",
     "probability": 0.63,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-10",
     "probability": 0.63,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-11",
     "probability": 0.63,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-12",
     "probability": 0.63,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
  }
 ]
}