{
 "question": "Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?",
 "url": "https://themorningline.news/odds/russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-by-december-31-2026",
 "category": "politics",
 "as_of": "2026-10-05",
 "first_tracked": "2026-07-23",
 "license": "CC BY 4.0 — free to reuse with a link back",
 "note": "Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts (0-1). Rows with source 'backfill' are pre-tracking reference history from the market's own records, never published by us.",
 "outcomes": [
  {
   "name": "Yes",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-07-23",
     "probability": 0.235,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-24",
     "probability": 0.245,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-25",
     "probability": 0.245,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-26",
     "probability": 0.245,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-27",
     "probability": 0.215,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-28",
     "probability": 0.22,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-29",
     "probability": 0.215,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-30",
     "probability": 0.22,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-31",
     "probability": 0.215,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-09",
     "probability": 0.125,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-10",
     "probability": 0.135,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-11",
     "probability": 0.13,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-12",
     "probability": 0.135,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-13",
     "probability": 0.125,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-14",
     "probability": 0.145,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-15",
     "probability": 0.145,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-16",
     "probability": 0.145,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-17",
     "probability": 0.145,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-18",
     "probability": 0.145,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-19",
     "probability": 0.145,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-20",
     "probability": 0.145,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-21",
     "probability": 0.135,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-22",
     "probability": 0.135,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-23",
     "probability": 0.155,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-24",
     "probability": 0.165,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-25",
     "probability": 0.135,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-26",
     "probability": 0.135,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-27",
     "probability": 0.135,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-28",
     "probability": 0.135,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-29",
     "probability": 0.115,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-30",
     "probability": 0.115,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-01",
     "probability": 0.125,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-02",
     "probability": 0.115,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-03",
     "probability": 0.105,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-04",
     "probability": 0.105,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-05",
     "probability": 0.105,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
  }
 ]
}