{
 "question": "UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?",
 "url": "https://themorningline.news/odds/unsc-resolution-endorsing-final-u-s-iran-deal-by-december-31",
 "category": "sports",
 "as_of": "2026-10-11",
 "first_tracked": "2026-07-16",
 "license": "CC BY 4.0 — free to reuse with a link back",
 "note": "Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts (0-1). Rows with source 'backfill' are pre-tracking reference history from the market's own records, never published by us.",
 "outcomes": [
  {
   "name": "Yes",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-07-16",
     "probability": 0.235,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-17",
     "probability": 0.235,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-18",
     "probability": 0.27,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-19",
     "probability": 0.265,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-01",
     "probability": 0.285,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-02",
     "probability": 0.325,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-03",
     "probability": 0.345,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-04",
     "probability": 0.345,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-07",
     "probability": 0.345,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-08",
     "probability": 0.345,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-09",
     "probability": 0.345,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-28",
     "probability": 0.145,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-29",
     "probability": 0.135,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-30",
     "probability": 0.145,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-01",
     "probability": 0.135,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-02",
     "probability": 0.135,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-03",
     "probability": 0.125,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-04",
     "probability": 0.115,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-05",
     "probability": 0.105,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-08",
     "probability": 0.105,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-10",
     "probability": 0.105,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-11",
     "probability": 0.105,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
  }
 ]
}