{
 "question": "US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?",
 "url": "https://themorningline.news/odds/us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-by-november-30-2026",
 "category": "other",
 "as_of": "2026-11-02",
 "first_tracked": "2026-10-05",
 "license": "CC BY 4.0 — free to reuse with a link back",
 "note": "Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts (0-1). Rows with source 'backfill' are pre-tracking reference history from the market's own records, never published by us.",
 "outcomes": [
  {
   "name": "Yes",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-10-05",
     "probability": 0.345,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-09",
     "probability": 0.345,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-10",
     "probability": 0.28,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-11",
     "probability": 0.26,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-19",
     "probability": 0.255,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-20",
     "probability": 0.28,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-21",
     "probability": 0.235,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-22",
     "probability": 0.215,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-23",
     "probability": 0.22,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-11-01",
     "probability": 0.265,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-11-02",
     "probability": 0.275,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
  }
 ]
}