{
 "question": "US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?",
 "url": "https://themorningline.news/odds/us-iran-final-nuclear-deal-by-october-31-2026",
 "category": "sports",
 "as_of": "2026-10-12",
 "first_tracked": "2026-08-15",
 "license": "CC BY 4.0 — free to reuse with a link back",
 "note": "Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts (0-1). Rows with source 'backfill' are pre-tracking reference history from the market's own records, never published by us.",
 "outcomes": [
  {
   "name": "Yes",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-08-15",
     "probability": 0.05,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-16",
     "probability": 0.055,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-17",
     "probability": 0.095,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-28",
     "probability": 0.029,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-21",
     "probability": 0.029,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-22",
     "probability": 0.034,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-23",
     "probability": 0.042,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-24",
     "probability": 0.037,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-07",
     "probability": 0.0275,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-08",
     "probability": 0.029,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-09",
     "probability": 0.023,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-10",
     "probability": 0.0215,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-11",
     "probability": 0.0165,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-12",
     "probability": 0.015,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
  }
 ]
}