{
 "question": "US x Cuba military clash in 2026?",
 "url": "https://themorningline.news/odds/us-x-cuba-military-clash-in-2026",
 "category": "other",
 "as_of": "2026-10-12",
 "first_tracked": "2026-08-01",
 "license": "CC BY 4.0 — free to reuse with a link back",
 "note": "Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts (0-1). Rows with source 'backfill' are pre-tracking reference history from the market's own records, never published by us.",
 "outcomes": [
  {
   "name": "Yes",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-08-01",
     "probability": 0.27,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-02",
     "probability": 0.26,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-03",
     "probability": 0.26,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-04",
     "probability": 0.26,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-05",
     "probability": 0.26,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-06",
     "probability": 0.26,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-01",
     "probability": 0.165,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-02",
     "probability": 0.155,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-03",
     "probability": 0.175,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-04",
     "probability": 0.175,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-05",
     "probability": 0.16,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-06",
     "probability": 0.165,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-07",
     "probability": 0.145,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-08",
     "probability": 0.16,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-10",
     "probability": 0.14,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-11",
     "probability": 0.18,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-12",
     "probability": 0.15,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
  }
 ]
}