{
 "question": "US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 11?",
 "url": "https://themorningline.news/odds/us-x-iran-effective-ceasefire-by-september-11",
 "category": "politics",
 "as_of": "2026-09-15",
 "first_tracked": "2026-09-09",
 "license": "CC BY 4.0 — free to reuse with a link back",
 "note": "Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts (0-1). Rows with source 'backfill' are pre-tracking reference history from the market's own records, never published by us.",
 "outcomes": [
  {
   "name": "Yes",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-09-09",
     "probability": 0.6,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-13",
     "probability": 0.87,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-15",
     "probability": 0.994,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
  }
 ]
}