{
 "question": "Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?",
 "url": "https://themorningline.news/odds/variational-fdv-above-1b-one-day-after-launch",
 "category": "other",
 "as_of": "2026-09-03",
 "first_tracked": "2026-07-07",
 "license": "CC BY 4.0 — free to reuse with a link back",
 "note": "Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts (0-1). Rows with source 'backfill' are pre-tracking reference history from the market's own records, never published by us.",
 "outcomes": [
  {
   "name": "Yes",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-07-07",
     "probability": 0.31,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-09",
     "probability": 0.295,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-10",
     "probability": 0.3,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-11",
     "probability": 0.305,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-14",
     "probability": 0.29,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-16",
     "probability": 0.3,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-17",
     "probability": 0.31,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-18",
     "probability": 0.29,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-19",
     "probability": 0.32,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-01",
     "probability": 0.445,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-02",
     "probability": 0.455,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-03",
     "probability": 0.465,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
  }
 ]
}