{
 "question": "Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch?",
 "url": "https://themorningline.news/odds/variational-fdv-above-500m-one-day-after-launch",
 "category": "other",
 "as_of": "2026-10-08",
 "first_tracked": "2026-09-06",
 "license": "CC BY 4.0 — free to reuse with a link back",
 "note": "Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts (0-1). Rows with source 'backfill' are pre-tracking reference history from the market's own records, never published by us.",
 "outcomes": [
  {
   "name": "Yes",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-09-06",
     "probability": 0.81,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-07",
     "probability": 0.825,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-09",
     "probability": 0.82,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-10",
     "probability": 0.82,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-11",
     "probability": 0.84,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-12",
     "probability": 0.855,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-13",
     "probability": 0.855,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-14",
     "probability": 0.875,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-15",
     "probability": 0.86,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-16",
     "probability": 0.87,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-17",
     "probability": 0.875,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-18",
     "probability": 0.86,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-19",
     "probability": 0.86,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-20",
     "probability": 0.88,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-21",
     "probability": 0.915,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-22",
     "probability": 0.92,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-23",
     "probability": 0.915,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-24",
     "probability": 0.915,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-25",
     "probability": 0.85,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-26",
     "probability": 0.845,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-27",
     "probability": 0.81,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-28",
     "probability": 0.83,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-29",
     "probability": 0.825,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-30",
     "probability": 0.825,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-01",
     "probability": 0.835,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-02",
     "probability": 0.835,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-03",
     "probability": 0.835,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-04",
     "probability": 0.845,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-05",
     "probability": 0.835,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-06",
     "probability": 0.835,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-07",
     "probability": 0.875,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-08",
     "probability": 0.885,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
  }
 ]
}