{
 "question": "What will Apple say during their next earnings call?",
 "url": "https://themorningline.news/odds/what-will-apple-say-during-their-next-earnings-call",
 "category": "other",
 "as_of": "2026-10-05",
 "first_tracked": "2026-09-24",
 "license": "CC BY 4.0 — free to reuse with a link back",
 "note": "Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts (0-1). Rows with source 'backfill' are pre-tracking reference history from the market's own records, never published by us.",
 "outcomes": [
  {
   "name": "iPhone 18",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-09-23",
     "probability": 0.89,
     "source": "backfill"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-24",
     "probability": 0.66,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-25",
     "probability": 0.895,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-28",
     "probability": 0.695,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-29",
     "probability": 0.87,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-05",
     "probability": 0.955,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "name": "Siri",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-09-23",
     "probability": 0.73,
     "source": "backfill"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-28",
     "probability": 0.885,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-29",
     "probability": 0.88,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-05",
     "probability": 0.925,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "name": "Tariff",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-09-23",
     "probability": 0.8,
     "source": "backfill"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-28",
     "probability": 0.695,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-29",
     "probability": 0.85,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-05",
     "probability": 0.895,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "name": "Manufacturing",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-09-23",
     "probability": 0.73,
     "source": "backfill"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-28",
     "probability": 0.865,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-29",
     "probability": 0.86,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-05",
     "probability": 0.85,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "name": "Mac Studio",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-10-05",
     "probability": 0.84,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "name": "Fold / Folding / Foldable",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-09-23",
     "probability": 0.03,
     "source": "backfill"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-24",
     "probability": 0.52,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-25",
     "probability": 0.8,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-28",
     "probability": 0.705,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-29",
     "probability": 0.685,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-05",
     "probability": 0.615,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "name": "Broadcom",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-09-23",
     "probability": 0.03,
     "source": "backfill"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-28",
     "probability": 0.445,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-29",
     "probability": 0.445,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-05",
     "probability": 0.405,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
  }
 ]
}