{
 "question": "What will Donald Trump say during RNC Midterm Convention?",
 "url": "https://themorningline.news/odds/what-will-donald-trump-say-during-rnc-midterm-convention",
 "category": "other",
 "as_of": "2026-08-29",
 "first_tracked": "2026-08-27",
 "license": "CC BY 4.0 — free to reuse with a link back",
 "note": "Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts (0-1). Rows with source 'backfill' are pre-tracking reference history from the market's own records, never published by us.",
 "outcomes": [
  {
   "name": "Democrat",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-08-27",
     "probability": 0.91,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-28",
     "probability": 0.91,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-29",
     "probability": 0.915,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "name": "Biden",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-08-27",
     "probability": 0.895,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-28",
     "probability": 0.895,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-29",
     "probability": 0.91,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "name": "Hottest",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-08-29",
     "probability": 0.91,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "name": "Oil / Gas / Gasoline",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-08-29",
     "probability": 0.9,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "name": "Stock Market",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-08-29",
     "probability": 0.895,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "name": "Trillion",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-08-27",
     "probability": 0.76,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-28",
     "probability": 0.885,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-29",
     "probability": 0.885,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "name": "Venezuela",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-08-27",
     "probability": 0.795,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-28",
     "probability": 0.875,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-29",
     "probability": 0.88,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "name": "Transgender",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-08-27",
     "probability": 0.795,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-28",
     "probability": 0.875,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-29",
     "probability": 0.88,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
  }
 ]
}