{
 "question": "What will The Progressive Corporation say during their next earnings call?",
 "url": "https://themorningline.news/odds/what-will-the-progressive-corporation-say-during-their-next-earnings.html",
 "category": "other",
 "as_of": "2026-07-22",
 "first_tracked": "2026-07-07",
 "license": "CC BY 4.0 — free to reuse with a link back",
 "note": "Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts (0-1). Rows with source 'backfill' are pre-tracking reference history from the market's own records, never published by us.",
 "outcomes": [
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   "name": "M&A / Acquisition",
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     "probability": 0.8,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-08",
     "probability": 0.8,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-09",
     "probability": 0.795,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-10",
     "probability": 0.805,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-11",
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     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-12",
     "probability": 0.795,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
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     "date": "2026-07-13",
     "probability": 0.81,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
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     "date": "2026-07-14",
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     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-15",
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     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-16",
     "probability": 0.905,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-17",
     "probability": 0.925,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-18",
     "probability": 0.9,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-19",
     "probability": 0.9,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-20",
     "probability": 0.905,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-21",
     "probability": 0.885,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-22",
     "probability": 0.87,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "name": "Inflation",
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     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-08",
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     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-09",
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     "date": "2026-07-10",
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     "date": "2026-07-12",
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     "source": "tracked"
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     "date": "2026-07-13",
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     "date": "2026-07-14",
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     "date": "2026-07-15",
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     "date": "2026-07-16",
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     "source": "tracked"
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     "date": "2026-07-17",
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    },
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     "date": "2026-07-18",
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     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-19",
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     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-20",
     "probability": 0.83,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-21",
     "probability": 0.855,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-22",
     "probability": 0.855,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "name": "AI / Artificial Intelligence",
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     "date": "2026-07-11",
     "probability": 0.78,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-12",
     "probability": 0.735,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-13",
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     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-14",
     "probability": 0.75,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-15",
     "probability": 0.785,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-16",
     "probability": 0.785,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-17",
     "probability": 0.735,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-18",
     "probability": 0.695,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-19",
     "probability": 0.715,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-20",
     "probability": 0.735,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-21",
     "probability": 0.735,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-22",
     "probability": 0.735,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "name": "Catastrophe",
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     "date": "2026-07-07",
     "probability": 0.435,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-08",
     "probability": 0.435,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-09",
     "probability": 0.43,
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    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-10",
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     "source": "tracked"
    },
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     "date": "2026-07-11",
     "probability": 0.37,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-12",
     "probability": 0.395,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-13",
     "probability": 0.375,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-14",
     "probability": 0.355,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-15",
     "probability": 0.465,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-16",
     "probability": 0.475,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-17",
     "probability": 0.51,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-18",
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     "source": "tracked"
    },
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     "date": "2026-07-19",
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     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-20",
     "probability": 0.48,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-21",
     "probability": 0.54,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-22",
     "probability": 0.56,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "name": "Headwind",
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     "date": "2026-07-07",
     "probability": 0.4,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-08",
     "probability": 0.4,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-09",
     "probability": 0.39,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-10",
     "probability": 0.33,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-11",
     "probability": 0.505,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-12",
     "probability": 0.545,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-13",
     "probability": 0.63,
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    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-14",
     "probability": 0.635,
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    },
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     "date": "2026-07-15",
     "probability": 0.67,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
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     "date": "2026-07-16",
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     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-17",
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     "source": "tracked"
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     "date": "2026-07-18",
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     "date": "2026-07-20",
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     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-21",
     "probability": 0.5,
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    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-22",
     "probability": 0.495,
     "source": "tracked"
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  {
   "name": "Snapshot",
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     "date": "2026-07-07",
     "probability": 0.435,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-08",
     "probability": 0.32,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-09",
     "probability": 0.3,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-10",
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     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-11",
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     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-12",
     "probability": 0.265,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-13",
     "probability": 0.265,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-14",
     "probability": 0.38,
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    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-15",
     "probability": 0.545,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-16",
     "probability": 0.39,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-17",
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     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-18",
     "probability": 0.37,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-19",
     "probability": 0.345,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-20",
     "probability": 0.37,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-21",
     "probability": 0.37,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-22",
     "probability": 0.365,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "name": "Buyback",
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    {
     "date": "2026-07-07",
     "probability": 0.075,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-08",
     "probability": 0.09,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-09",
     "probability": 0.09,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-10",
     "probability": 0.09,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
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     "date": "2026-07-11",
     "probability": 0.3,
     "source": "tracked"
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    {
     "date": "2026-07-12",
     "probability": 0.255,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-13",
     "probability": 0.15,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-14",
     "probability": 0.23,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-15",
     "probability": 0.255,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-16",
     "probability": 0.125,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-17",
     "probability": 0.09,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-18",
     "probability": 0.115,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-19",
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     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-20",
     "probability": 0.14,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-21",
     "probability": 0.125,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-22",
     "probability": 0.3,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "name": "Iran / Middle East",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-07-07",
     "probability": 0.245,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-08",
     "probability": 0.25,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-09",
     "probability": 0.255,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-10",
     "probability": 0.405,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-11",
     "probability": 0.4,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-12",
     "probability": 0.395,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-13",
     "probability": 0.395,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-14",
     "probability": 0.38,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-15",
     "probability": 0.155,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-16",
     "probability": 0.16,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-17",
     "probability": 0.16,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-18",
     "probability": 0.2,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-19",
     "probability": 0.17,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-20",
     "probability": 0.165,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-21",
     "probability": 0.215,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-22",
     "probability": 0.215,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
  }
 ]
}