{
 "question": "Who will be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 2026?",
 "url": "https://themorningline.news/odds/who-will-be-the-ufc-middleweight-champion-on-december-31-2026",
 "category": "sports",
 "as_of": "2026-08-27",
 "first_tracked": "2026-07-07",
 "license": "CC BY 4.0 — free to reuse with a link back",
 "note": "Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts (0-1). Rows with source 'backfill' are pre-tracking reference history from the market's own records, never published by us.",
 "outcomes": [
  {
   "name": "Khamzat Chimaev",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-07-09",
     "probability": 0.175,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-11",
     "probability": 0.235,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-17",
     "probability": 0.165,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-18",
     "probability": 0.17,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-19",
     "probability": 0.19,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-20",
     "probability": 0.18,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-22",
     "probability": 0.175,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-23",
     "probability": 0.175,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-25",
     "probability": 0.125,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-27",
     "probability": 0.14,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "name": "Israel Adesanya",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-07-07",
     "probability": 0.003,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-08",
     "probability": 0.0055,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-09",
     "probability": 0.0055,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-10",
     "probability": 0.005,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-11",
     "probability": 0.0035,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-12",
     "probability": 0.0035,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-13",
     "probability": 0.003,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-14",
     "probability": 0.003,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-15",
     "probability": 0.0035,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-16",
     "probability": 0.003,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-22",
     "probability": 0.0015,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-23",
     "probability": 0.0015,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-24",
     "probability": 0.0015,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-25",
     "probability": 0.0015,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-26",
     "probability": 0.0015,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-27",
     "probability": 0.0015,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-28",
     "probability": 0.0015,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-29",
     "probability": 0.0015,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-30",
     "probability": 0.0015,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-31",
     "probability": 0.0015,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-11",
     "probability": 0.0015,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-12",
     "probability": 0.0015,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-13",
     "probability": 0.0015,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-14",
     "probability": 0.0015,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-15",
     "probability": 0.0015,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-16",
     "probability": 0.0015,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-17",
     "probability": 0.0015,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-18",
     "probability": 0.0015,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-19",
     "probability": 0.0015,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-20",
     "probability": 0.0015,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-21",
     "probability": 0.0015,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-22",
     "probability": 0.0015,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-24",
     "probability": 0.0015,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-26",
     "probability": 0.0015,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-27",
     "probability": 0.0015,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "name": "Robert Whittaker",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-07-07",
     "probability": 0.0015,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-09",
     "probability": 0.0015,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-10",
     "probability": 0.0015,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-11",
     "probability": 0.0015,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-14",
     "probability": 0.0015,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-16",
     "probability": 0.0015,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-17",
     "probability": 0.0015,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-19",
     "probability": 0.0015,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-25",
     "probability": 0.0015,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-26",
     "probability": 0.0015,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-28",
     "probability": 0.0015,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-29",
     "probability": 0.0015,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-30",
     "probability": 0.0015,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-31",
     "probability": 0.0015,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-14",
     "probability": 0.0015,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-15",
     "probability": 0.0015,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-16",
     "probability": 0.0015,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-17",
     "probability": 0.0015,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-18",
     "probability": 0.0015,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-19",
     "probability": 0.0015,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-20",
     "probability": 0.0015,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-21",
     "probability": 0.0015,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-22",
     "probability": 0.0015,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-23",
     "probability": 0.0015,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-24",
     "probability": 0.0015,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-25",
     "probability": 0.0015,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-26",
     "probability": 0.0015,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-27",
     "probability": 0.0015,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "name": "Jared Cannonier",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-07-07",
     "probability": 0.004,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-09",
     "probability": 0.004,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-10",
     "probability": 0.004,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-11",
     "probability": 0.004,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-14",
     "probability": 0.008,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-16",
     "probability": 0.0085,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-17",
     "probability": 0.006,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-25",
     "probability": 0.0055,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-26",
     "probability": 0.0055,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-28",
     "probability": 0.0015,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-29",
     "probability": 0.0015,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-30",
     "probability": 0.0015,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-31",
     "probability": 0.0015,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-14",
     "probability": 0.0015,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-15",
     "probability": 0.0015,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-16",
     "probability": 0.0015,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-17",
     "probability": 0.0015,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-18",
     "probability": 0.0015,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-19",
     "probability": 0.0015,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-20",
     "probability": 0.0015,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-21",
     "probability": 0.0015,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-22",
     "probability": 0.0015,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-23",
     "probability": 0.0015,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-24",
     "probability": 0.0015,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-25",
     "probability": 0.0015,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-26",
     "probability": 0.0015,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-27",
     "probability": 0.0015,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "name": "Anthony Hernandez",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-07-09",
     "probability": 0.0055,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-10",
     "probability": 0.005,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-11",
     "probability": 0.0045,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-14",
     "probability": 0.0075,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-16",
     "probability": 0.0075,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-17",
     "probability": 0.007,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-18",
     "probability": 0.007,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-19",
     "probability": 0.0065,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-25",
     "probability": 0.0025,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-26",
     "probability": 0.002,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-29",
     "probability": 0.0015,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-30",
     "probability": 0.0015,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-15",
     "probability": 0.0015,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-16",
     "probability": 0.0015,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-17",
     "probability": 0.0015,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-18",
     "probability": 0.0015,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-19",
     "probability": 0.0015,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-20",
     "probability": 0.0015,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-21",
     "probability": 0.0015,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-22",
     "probability": 0.0015,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-23",
     "probability": 0.0015,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-24",
     "probability": 0.0015,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-25",
     "probability": 0.0015,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-26",
     "probability": 0.0015,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-27",
     "probability": 0.0015,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
  }
 ]
}