{
 "question": "Who will win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?",
 "url": "https://themorningline.news/odds/who-will-win-the-2026-michigan-democratic-primary",
 "category": "other",
 "as_of": "2026-08-04",
 "first_tracked": "2026-07-07",
 "license": "CC BY 4.0 — free to reuse with a link back",
 "note": "Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts (0-1). Rows with source 'backfill' are pre-tracking reference history from the market's own records, never published by us.",
 "outcomes": [
  {
   "name": "Abdul El-Sayed",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-07-12",
     "probability": 0.8,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-13",
     "probability": 0.775,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-15",
     "probability": 0.655,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-16",
     "probability": 0.675,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-17",
     "probability": 0.675,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-18",
     "probability": 0.655,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-19",
     "probability": 0.645,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-04",
     "probability": 0.981,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "name": "Mallory McMorrow",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-07-19",
     "probability": 0.0005,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-01",
     "probability": 0.0005,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-02",
     "probability": 0.0005,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-03",
     "probability": 0.0005,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-04",
     "probability": 0.0005,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "name": "Dana Nessel",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-08-01",
     "probability": 0.0005,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-02",
     "probability": 0.0005,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-03",
     "probability": 0.0005,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-04",
     "probability": 0.0005,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
  }
 ]
}