{
 "question": "Who will win the 2026 San Francisco Board of Supervisors District 8 election?",
 "url": "https://themorningline.news/odds/who-will-win-the-2026-san-francisco-board-of-supervisors-district-8",
 "category": "politics",
 "as_of": "2026-10-12",
 "first_tracked": "2026-10-02",
 "license": "CC BY 4.0 — free to reuse with a link back",
 "note": "Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts (0-1). Rows with source 'backfill' are pre-tracking reference history from the market's own records, never published by us.",
 "outcomes": [
  {
   "name": "Gary McCoy",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-10-02",
     "probability": 0.945,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-03",
     "probability": 0.935,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-04",
     "probability": 0.89,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-05",
     "probability": 0.875,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-06",
     "probability": 0.89,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-12",
     "probability": 0.77,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "name": "Manny Yekutiel",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-10-02",
     "probability": 0.015,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-03",
     "probability": 0.015,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-04",
     "probability": 0.015,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-05",
     "probability": 0.015,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-06",
     "probability": 0.015,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-12",
     "probability": 0.11,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "name": "Michael Nguyen",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-10-02",
     "probability": 0.025,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-03",
     "probability": 0.035,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-04",
     "probability": 0.045,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-05",
     "probability": 0.05,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-06",
     "probability": 0.045,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-12",
     "probability": 0.055,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "name": "Darshini Patel",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-10-02",
     "probability": 0.035,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-03",
     "probability": 0.045,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-04",
     "probability": 0.035,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-05",
     "probability": 0.035,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-06",
     "probability": 0.035,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-12",
     "probability": 0.035,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
  }
 ]
}