{
 "question": "Who will win the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?",
 "url": "https://themorningline.news/odds/who-will-win-the-2026-south-carolina-republican-senate-special-primary",
 "category": "politics",
 "as_of": "2026-07-29",
 "first_tracked": "2026-07-13",
 "license": "CC BY 4.0 — free to reuse with a link back",
 "note": "Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts (0-1). Rows with source 'backfill' are pre-tracking reference history from the market's own records, never published by us.",
 "outcomes": [
  {
   "name": "Darline Graham",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-07-22",
     "probability": 0.72,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-23",
     "probability": 0.665,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-24",
     "probability": 0.705,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-25",
     "probability": 0.695,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-26",
     "probability": 0.725,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-27",
     "probability": 0.725,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-28",
     "probability": 0.735,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-29",
     "probability": 0.715,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "name": "Ralph Norman",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-07-13",
     "probability": 0.135,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-14",
     "probability": 0.16,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-15",
     "probability": 0.215,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-16",
     "probability": 0.265,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-17",
     "probability": 0.065,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-18",
     "probability": 0.235,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-19",
     "probability": 0.215,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-20",
     "probability": 0.12,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-21",
     "probability": 0.085,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-22",
     "probability": 0.165,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-23",
     "probability": 0.225,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-24",
     "probability": 0.185,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-25",
     "probability": 0.185,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-26",
     "probability": 0.175,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-27",
     "probability": 0.185,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-28",
     "probability": 0.18,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-29",
     "probability": 0.195,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "name": "Russell Fry",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-07-13",
     "probability": 0.625,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-14",
     "probability": 0.645,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-15",
     "probability": 0.585,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-16",
     "probability": 0.39,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-17",
     "probability": 0.185,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-18",
     "probability": 0.215,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-19",
     "probability": 0.135,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-20",
     "probability": 0.135,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-21",
     "probability": 0.095,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-22",
     "probability": 0.085,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-23",
     "probability": 0.055,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-24",
     "probability": 0.085,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-25",
     "probability": 0.075,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-26",
     "probability": 0.075,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-27",
     "probability": 0.07,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-28",
     "probability": 0.065,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-29",
     "probability": 0.075,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "name": "Mark Sanford",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-07-23",
     "probability": 0.03,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-24",
     "probability": 0.025,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-25",
     "probability": 0.015,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-26",
     "probability": 0.015,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-27",
     "probability": 0.015,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-28",
     "probability": 0.015,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-29",
     "probability": 0.015,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
  }
 ]
}