{
 "question": "Who will win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?",
 "url": "https://themorningline.news/odds/who-will-win-the-2027-argentina-presidential-election",
 "category": "politics",
 "as_of": "2026-10-17",
 "first_tracked": "2026-07-22",
 "license": "CC BY 4.0 — free to reuse with a link back",
 "note": "Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts (0-1). Rows with source 'backfill' are pre-tracking reference history from the market's own records, never published by us.",
 "outcomes": [
  {
   "name": "Javier Milei",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-08-01",
     "probability": 0.535,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-02",
     "probability": 0.54,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-03",
     "probability": 0.515,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-04",
     "probability": 0.525,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-05",
     "probability": 0.505,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-06",
     "probability": 0.515,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-07",
     "probability": 0.535,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-08",
     "probability": 0.535,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-09",
     "probability": 0.56,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-10",
     "probability": 0.56,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-11",
     "probability": 0.555,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-12",
     "probability": 0.545,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-13",
     "probability": 0.535,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-14",
     "probability": 0.505,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-15",
     "probability": 0.515,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-16",
     "probability": 0.52,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-17",
     "probability": 0.515,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-18",
     "probability": 0.53,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-19",
     "probability": 0.515,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-20",
     "probability": 0.505,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-21",
     "probability": 0.505,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-22",
     "probability": 0.505,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-23",
     "probability": 0.535,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-24",
     "probability": 0.525,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-25",
     "probability": 0.525,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-26",
     "probability": 0.525,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-27",
     "probability": 0.52,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-28",
     "probability": 0.495,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-29",
     "probability": 0.5,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-30",
     "probability": 0.525,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-31",
     "probability": 0.505,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-16",
     "probability": 0.495,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-17",
     "probability": 0.475,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
  }
 ]
}