{
 "question": "Who will win the 2027 French presidential election?",
 "url": "https://themorningline.news/odds/who-will-win-the-2027-french-presidential-election.html",
 "category": "politics",
 "as_of": "2026-07-15",
 "first_tracked": "2026-07-07",
 "license": "CC BY 4.0 — free to reuse with a link back",
 "note": "Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts (0-1). Rows with source 'backfill' are pre-tracking reference history from the market's own records, never published by us.",
 "outcomes": [
  {
   "name": "Jean-Luc Mélenchon",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-07-07",
     "probability": 0.115,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-08",
     "probability": 0.105,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-09",
     "probability": 0.115,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-10",
     "probability": 0.115,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-11",
     "probability": 0.115,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-12",
     "probability": 0.115,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-13",
     "probability": 0.125,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-14",
     "probability": 0.125,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-15",
     "probability": 0.125,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "name": "François Baroin",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-07-15",
     "probability": 0.0025,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
  }
 ]
}