{
 "question": "Who will win the Clacton by-election?",
 "url": "https://themorningline.news/odds/who-will-win-the-clacton-by-election",
 "category": "politics",
 "as_of": "2026-07-29",
 "first_tracked": "2026-07-10",
 "license": "CC BY 4.0 — free to reuse with a link back",
 "note": "Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts (0-1). Rows with source 'backfill' are pre-tracking reference history from the market's own records, never published by us.",
 "outcomes": [
  {
   "name": "Nigel Farage",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-07-17",
     "probability": 0.9525,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-18",
     "probability": 0.9575,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-19",
     "probability": 0.9585,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-20",
     "probability": 0.9505,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-21",
     "probability": 0.9515,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-22",
     "probability": 0.9515,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-23",
     "probability": 0.955,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-24",
     "probability": 0.9585,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-25",
     "probability": 0.9555,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-26",
     "probability": 0.9565,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-27",
     "probability": 0.959,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-28",
     "probability": 0.964,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-29",
     "probability": 0.9735,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
  }
 ]
}