{
 "question": "Who will win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?",
 "url": "https://themorningline.news/odds/who-will-win-the-most-seats-in-the-2026-israeli-legislative-election",
 "category": "politics",
 "as_of": "2026-10-05",
 "first_tracked": "2026-07-22",
 "license": "CC BY 4.0 — free to reuse with a link back",
 "note": "Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts (0-1). Rows with source 'backfill' are pre-tracking reference history from the market's own records, never published by us.",
 "outcomes": [
  {
   "name": "Likud",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-07-22",
     "probability": 0.555,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-23",
     "probability": 0.555,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-09",
     "probability": 0.405,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-10",
     "probability": 0.395,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-11",
     "probability": 0.385,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-12",
     "probability": 0.385,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-13",
     "probability": 0.385,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-19",
     "probability": 0.395,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-20",
     "probability": 0.385,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-02",
     "probability": 0.525,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-03",
     "probability": 0.54,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-04",
     "probability": 0.55,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-05",
     "probability": 0.54,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
  }
 ]
}