{
 "question": "Who will win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?",
 "url": "https://themorningline.news/odds/who-will-win-the-ohio-senate-race-in-2026",
 "category": "politics",
 "as_of": "2026-09-30",
 "first_tracked": "2026-07-27",
 "license": "CC BY 4.0 — free to reuse with a link back",
 "note": "Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts (0-1). Rows with source 'backfill' are pre-tracking reference history from the market's own records, never published by us.",
 "outcomes": [
  {
   "name": "the Republicans",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-08-16",
     "probability": 0.47,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-17",
     "probability": 0.475,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-18",
     "probability": 0.465,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-19",
     "probability": 0.475,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-20",
     "probability": 0.475,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-21",
     "probability": 0.475,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-22",
     "probability": 0.475,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-23",
     "probability": 0.475,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-24",
     "probability": 0.475,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-25",
     "probability": 0.465,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-26",
     "probability": 0.465,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-27",
     "probability": 0.455,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-28",
     "probability": 0.455,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-29",
     "probability": 0.455,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-31",
     "probability": 0.455,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-11",
     "probability": 0.475,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-12",
     "probability": 0.485,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-13",
     "probability": 0.485,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-22",
     "probability": 0.365,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-23",
     "probability": 0.365,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-24",
     "probability": 0.395,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-25",
     "probability": 0.405,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-26",
     "probability": 0.415,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-27",
     "probability": 0.415,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-28",
     "probability": 0.425,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-29",
     "probability": 0.415,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-30",
     "probability": 0.395,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
  }
 ]
}