{
 "question": "Who will win the Texas Senate race in 2026?",
 "url": "https://themorningline.news/odds/who-will-win-the-texas-senate-race-in-2026",
 "category": "politics",
 "as_of": "2026-10-05",
 "first_tracked": "2026-07-07",
 "license": "CC BY 4.0 — free to reuse with a link back",
 "note": "Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts (0-1). Rows with source 'backfill' are pre-tracking reference history from the market's own records, never published by us.",
 "outcomes": [
  {
   "name": "the Democrats",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-07-12",
     "probability": 0.445,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-13",
     "probability": 0.445,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-15",
     "probability": 0.415,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-16",
     "probability": 0.42,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-20",
     "probability": 0.435,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-21",
     "probability": 0.435,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-22",
     "probability": 0.435,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-23",
     "probability": 0.435,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-24",
     "probability": 0.435,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-25",
     "probability": 0.435,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-26",
     "probability": 0.435,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-27",
     "probability": 0.435,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-28",
     "probability": 0.445,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-29",
     "probability": 0.46,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-30",
     "probability": 0.465,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-31",
     "probability": 0.495,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-02",
     "probability": 0.615,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-03",
     "probability": 0.645,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-04",
     "probability": 0.645,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-05",
     "probability": 0.635,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
  }
 ]
}