{
 "question": "Who will win the VA-05 House seat?",
 "url": "https://themorningline.news/odds/who-will-win-the-va-05-house-seat",
 "category": "politics",
 "as_of": "2026-10-27",
 "first_tracked": "2026-10-06",
 "license": "CC BY 4.0 — free to reuse with a link back",
 "note": "Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts (0-1). Rows with source 'backfill' are pre-tracking reference history from the market's own records, never published by us.",
 "outcomes": [
  {
   "name": "the Republican Party",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-10-12",
     "probability": 0.76,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-20",
     "probability": 0.705,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-27",
     "probability": 0.635,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "name": "the Democratic Party",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-10-06",
     "probability": 0.215,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-07",
     "probability": 0.215,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-12",
     "probability": 0.23,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-13",
     "probability": 0.23,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-14",
     "probability": 0.235,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-16",
     "probability": 0.295,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-17",
     "probability": 0.295,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-18",
     "probability": 0.305,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-19",
     "probability": 0.32,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-22",
     "probability": 0.38,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-23",
     "probability": 0.385,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-24",
     "probability": 0.335,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-25",
     "probability": 0.32,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-26",
     "probability": 0.355,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-27",
     "probability": 0.36,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
  }
 ]
}