{
 "question": "Will a ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?",
 "url": "https://themorningline.news/odds/will-a-5-uranium-enrichment-cap-1-year-be-in-a-us-iran-deal-in-2026",
 "category": "other",
 "as_of": "2026-10-14",
 "first_tracked": "2026-07-07",
 "license": "CC BY 4.0 — free to reuse with a link back",
 "note": "Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts (0-1). Rows with source 'backfill' are pre-tracking reference history from the market's own records, never published by us.",
 "outcomes": [
  {
   "name": "Yes",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-07-07",
     "probability": 0.355,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-08",
     "probability": 0.28,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-10",
     "probability": 0.285,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-12",
     "probability": 0.295,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-14",
     "probability": 0.28,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-16",
     "probability": 0.23,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-17",
     "probability": 0.23,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-01",
     "probability": 0.075,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-02",
     "probability": 0.075,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-03",
     "probability": 0.075,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-04",
     "probability": 0.065,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-05",
     "probability": 0.075,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-06",
     "probability": 0.085,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-07",
     "probability": 0.085,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-08",
     "probability": 0.085,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-09",
     "probability": 0.085,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-12",
     "probability": 0.095,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-13",
     "probability": 0.095,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-19",
     "probability": 0.085,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-09",
     "probability": 0.135,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-14",
     "probability": 0.145,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
  }
 ]
}