{
 "question": "Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?",
 "url": "https://themorningline.news/odds/will-anthropic-have-the-best-ai-model-at-the-end-of-december-2026",
 "category": "other",
 "as_of": "2026-10-04",
 "first_tracked": "2026-08-05",
 "license": "CC BY 4.0 — free to reuse with a link back",
 "note": "Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts (0-1). Rows with source 'backfill' are pre-tracking reference history from the market's own records, never published by us.",
 "outcomes": [
  {
   "name": "Yes",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-08-05",
     "probability": 0.68,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-06",
     "probability": 0.665,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-07",
     "probability": 0.675,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-08",
     "probability": 0.675,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-09",
     "probability": 0.67,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-10",
     "probability": 0.665,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-11",
     "probability": 0.665,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-12",
     "probability": 0.665,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-13",
     "probability": 0.665,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-14",
     "probability": 0.665,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-15",
     "probability": 0.66,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-30",
     "probability": 0.695,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-06",
     "probability": 0.655,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-07",
     "probability": 0.645,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-08",
     "probability": 0.645,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-09",
     "probability": 0.625,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-10",
     "probability": 0.615,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-01",
     "probability": 0.515,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-02",
     "probability": 0.545,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-03",
     "probability": 0.525,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-04",
     "probability": 0.525,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
  }
 ]
}