{
 "question": "Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?",
 "url": "https://themorningline.news/odds/will-anthropic-s-market-cap-be-1-8t-or-greater-at-market-close-on-ipo",
 "category": "other",
 "as_of": "2026-10-12",
 "first_tracked": "2026-08-01",
 "license": "CC BY 4.0 — free to reuse with a link back",
 "note": "Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts (0-1). Rows with source 'backfill' are pre-tracking reference history from the market's own records, never published by us.",
 "outcomes": [
  {
   "name": "Yes",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-08-01",
     "probability": 0.4,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-02",
     "probability": 0.385,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-03",
     "probability": 0.385,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-04",
     "probability": 0.385,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-05",
     "probability": 0.405,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-06",
     "probability": 0.405,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-07",
     "probability": 0.405,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-08",
     "probability": 0.405,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-11",
     "probability": 0.38,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-12",
     "probability": 0.38,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-13",
     "probability": 0.485,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-01",
     "probability": 0.835,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-02",
     "probability": 0.835,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-03",
     "probability": 0.835,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-04",
     "probability": 0.85,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-05",
     "probability": 0.885,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-06",
     "probability": 0.81,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-07",
     "probability": 0.805,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-08",
     "probability": 0.815,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-09",
     "probability": 0.815,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-10",
     "probability": 0.82,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-11",
     "probability": 0.825,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-12",
     "probability": 0.825,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
  }
 ]
}