{
 "question": "Will Augusto Cury finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?",
 "url": "https://themorningline.news/odds/will-augusto-cury-finish-in-third-place-in-the-first-round-of-the",
 "category": "politics",
 "as_of": "2026-09-30",
 "first_tracked": "2026-08-31",
 "license": "CC BY 4.0 — free to reuse with a link back",
 "note": "Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts (0-1). Rows with source 'backfill' are pre-tracking reference history from the market's own records, never published by us.",
 "outcomes": [
  {
   "name": "Yes",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-08-31",
     "probability": 0.4975,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-06",
     "probability": 0.562,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-07",
     "probability": 0.5855,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-08",
     "probability": 0.518,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-23",
     "probability": 0.406,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-24",
     "probability": 0.377,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-25",
     "probability": 0.4315,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-26",
     "probability": 0.4055,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-28",
     "probability": 0.45,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-29",
     "probability": 0.361,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-30",
     "probability": 0.337,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
  }
 ]
}