{
 "question": "Will Elsinore win Best Picture at the Oscars?",
 "url": "https://themorningline.news/odds/will-elsinore-win-best-picture-at-the-oscars",
 "category": "culture",
 "as_of": "2026-08-10",
 "first_tracked": "2026-07-21",
 "license": "CC BY 4.0 — free to reuse with a link back",
 "note": "Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts (0-1). Rows with source 'backfill' are pre-tracking reference history from the market's own records, never published by us.",
 "outcomes": [
  {
   "name": "Elsinore",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-07-21",
     "probability": 0.025,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-22",
     "probability": 0.025,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-23",
     "probability": 0.015,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-24",
     "probability": 0.015,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-25",
     "probability": 0.015,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-26",
     "probability": 0.015,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-27",
     "probability": 0.015,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-28",
     "probability": 0.015,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-29",
     "probability": 0.015,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-30",
     "probability": 0.015,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-31",
     "probability": 0.015,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-01",
     "probability": 0.015,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-04",
     "probability": 0.015,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-05",
     "probability": 0.015,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-06",
     "probability": 0.015,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-07",
     "probability": 0.015,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-08",
     "probability": 0.015,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-09",
     "probability": 0.015,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-10",
     "probability": 0.015,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
  }
 ]
}