{
 "question": "Will France win the third-place match at the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?",
 "url": "https://themorningline.news/odds/will-france-win-the-third-place-match-at-the-2026-men-s-fifa-world-cup.html",
 "category": "sports",
 "as_of": "2026-07-18",
 "first_tracked": "2026-07-07",
 "license": "CC BY 4.0 — free to reuse with a link back",
 "note": "Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts (0-1). Rows with source 'backfill' are pre-tracking reference history from the market's own records, never published by us.",
 "outcomes": [
  {
   "name": "France",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-06-03",
     "probability": 0.0,
     "source": "backfill"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-06-04",
     "probability": 0.16,
     "source": "backfill"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-06-05",
     "probability": 0.13,
     "source": "backfill"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-06-06",
     "probability": 0.13,
     "source": "backfill"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-06-07",
     "probability": 0.11,
     "source": "backfill"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-06-08",
     "probability": 0.16,
     "source": "backfill"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-06-09",
     "probability": 0.16,
     "source": "backfill"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-06-10",
     "probability": 0.15,
     "source": "backfill"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-06-11",
     "probability": 0.15,
     "source": "backfill"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-06-12",
     "probability": 0.16,
     "source": "backfill"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-06-13",
     "probability": 0.12,
     "source": "backfill"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-06-14",
     "probability": 0.13,
     "source": "backfill"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-06-15",
     "probability": 0.22,
     "source": "backfill"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-06-16",
     "probability": 0.12,
     "source": "backfill"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-06-17",
     "probability": 0.13,
     "source": "backfill"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-06-18",
     "probability": 0.18,
     "source": "backfill"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-06-19",
     "probability": 0.19,
     "source": "backfill"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-06-20",
     "probability": 0.19,
     "source": "backfill"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-06-21",
     "probability": 0.12,
     "source": "backfill"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-06-22",
     "probability": 0.08,
     "source": "backfill"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-06-23",
     "probability": 0.21,
     "source": "backfill"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-06-24",
     "probability": 0.19,
     "source": "backfill"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-06-25",
     "probability": 0.2,
     "source": "backfill"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-06-26",
     "probability": 0.17,
     "source": "backfill"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-06-27",
     "probability": 0.21,
     "source": "backfill"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-06-28",
     "probability": 0.19,
     "source": "backfill"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-06-29",
     "probability": 0.12,
     "source": "backfill"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-06-30",
     "probability": 0.18,
     "source": "backfill"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-01",
     "probability": 0.21,
     "source": "backfill"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-02",
     "probability": 0.21,
     "source": "backfill"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-03",
     "probability": 0.12,
     "source": "backfill"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-04",
     "probability": 0.21,
     "source": "backfill"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-05",
     "probability": 0.17,
     "source": "backfill"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-06",
     "probability": 0.18,
     "source": "backfill"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-07",
     "probability": 0.17,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-08",
     "probability": 0.175,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-09",
     "probability": 0.185,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-10",
     "probability": 0.21,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-11",
     "probability": 0.27,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-12",
     "probability": 0.245,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-13",
     "probability": 0.25,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-14",
     "probability": 0.255,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-15",
     "probability": 0.635,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-16",
     "probability": 0.625,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-17",
     "probability": 0.635,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-18",
     "probability": 0.675,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
  }
 ]
}