{
 "question": "Will Google release Gemini 3.5 Pro before Aug 16, 2026?",
 "url": "https://themorningline.news/odds/will-google-release-gemini-3-5-pro-before-aug-16-2026",
 "category": "other",
 "as_of": "2026-08-09",
 "first_tracked": "2026-07-16",
 "license": "CC BY 4.0 — free to reuse with a link back",
 "note": "Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts (0-1). Rows with source 'backfill' are pre-tracking reference history from the market's own records, never published by us.",
 "outcomes": [
  {
   "name": "Before Aug 16, 2026",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-07-16",
     "probability": 0.635,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-17",
     "probability": 0.475,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-18",
     "probability": 0.575,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-19",
     "probability": 0.49,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-20",
     "probability": 0.505,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-21",
     "probability": 0.475,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-22",
     "probability": 0.645,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-23",
     "probability": 0.67,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-24",
     "probability": 0.65,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-25",
     "probability": 0.63,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-26",
     "probability": 0.585,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-27",
     "probability": 0.5,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-28",
     "probability": 0.455,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-29",
     "probability": 0.515,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-30",
     "probability": 0.595,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-31",
     "probability": 0.645,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-01",
     "probability": 0.705,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-02",
     "probability": 0.695,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-03",
     "probability": 0.865,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-04",
     "probability": 0.535,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-07",
     "probability": 0.035,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-09",
     "probability": 0.075,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
  }
 ]
}