{
 "question": "Will Google release Gemini 4 before Oct 16, 2026?",
 "url": "https://themorningline.news/odds/will-google-release-gemini-4-before-oct-16-2026",
 "category": "other",
 "as_of": "2026-10-05",
 "first_tracked": "2026-09-24",
 "license": "CC BY 4.0 — free to reuse with a link back",
 "note": "Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts (0-1). Rows with source 'backfill' are pre-tracking reference history from the market's own records, never published by us.",
 "outcomes": [
  {
   "name": "Before Oct 16, 2026",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-09-23",
     "probability": 0.41,
     "source": "backfill"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-24",
     "probability": 0.48,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-25",
     "probability": 0.475,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-27",
     "probability": 0.46,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-28",
     "probability": 0.52,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-29",
     "probability": 0.695,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-05",
     "probability": 0.725,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
  }
 ]
}