{
 "question": "Will Lionel Messi score 10+ goals in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?",
 "url": "https://themorningline.news/odds/will-lionel-messi-score-10-goals-in-the-2026-men-s-fifa-world-cup.html",
 "category": "sports",
 "as_of": "2026-07-19",
 "first_tracked": "2026-07-07",
 "license": "CC BY 4.0 — free to reuse with a link back",
 "note": "Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts (0-1). Rows with source 'backfill' are pre-tracking reference history from the market's own records, never published by us.",
 "outcomes": [
  {
   "name": "10+ goals",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-06-18",
     "probability": 0.0,
     "source": "backfill"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-06-19",
     "probability": 0.01,
     "source": "backfill"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-06-20",
     "probability": 0.12,
     "source": "backfill"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-06-21",
     "probability": 0.18,
     "source": "backfill"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-06-22",
     "probability": 0.03,
     "source": "backfill"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-06-23",
     "probability": 0.31,
     "source": "backfill"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-06-24",
     "probability": 0.7,
     "source": "backfill"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-06-25",
     "probability": 0.59,
     "source": "backfill"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-06-26",
     "probability": 0.58,
     "source": "backfill"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-06-27",
     "probability": 0.58,
     "source": "backfill"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-06-28",
     "probability": 0.57,
     "source": "backfill"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-06-29",
     "probability": 0.69,
     "source": "backfill"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-06-30",
     "probability": 0.7,
     "source": "backfill"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-01",
     "probability": 0.7,
     "source": "backfill"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-02",
     "probability": 0.63,
     "source": "backfill"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-03",
     "probability": 0.83,
     "source": "backfill"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-04",
     "probability": 0.98,
     "source": "backfill"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-05",
     "probability": 0.48,
     "source": "backfill"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-06",
     "probability": 0.51,
     "source": "backfill"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-07",
     "probability": 0.53,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-08",
     "probability": 0.615,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-09",
     "probability": 0.48,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-10",
     "probability": 0.54,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-11",
     "probability": 0.525,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-12",
     "probability": 0.275,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-13",
     "probability": 0.295,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-14",
     "probability": 0.325,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-15",
     "probability": 0.14,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-16",
     "probability": 0.11,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-17",
     "probability": 0.1,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-18",
     "probability": 0.09,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-19",
     "probability": 0.105,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
  }
 ]
}