{
 "question": "Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?",
 "url": "https://themorningline.news/odds/will-luiz-in-cio-lula-da-silva-finish-in-second-place-in-the-first",
 "category": "politics",
 "as_of": "2026-08-26",
 "first_tracked": "2026-07-12",
 "license": "CC BY 4.0 — free to reuse with a link back",
 "note": "Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts (0-1). Rows with source 'backfill' are pre-tracking reference history from the market's own records, never published by us.",
 "outcomes": [
  {
   "name": "Yes",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-07-12",
     "probability": 0.0955,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-13",
     "probability": 0.043,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-14",
     "probability": 0.0365,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-15",
     "probability": 0.039,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-16",
     "probability": 0.053,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-22",
     "probability": 0.088,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-23",
     "probability": 0.093,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-24",
     "probability": 0.0785,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-25",
     "probability": 0.0755,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-26",
     "probability": 0.0805,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-28",
     "probability": 0.0505,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-29",
     "probability": 0.0535,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-24",
     "probability": 0.0545,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-26",
     "probability": 0.09,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
  }
 ]
}