{
 "question": "Will no listed leader be out before 2027?",
 "url": "https://themorningline.news/odds/will-no-listed-leader-be-out-before-2027",
 "category": "other",
 "as_of": "2026-11-03",
 "first_tracked": "2026-08-12",
 "license": "CC BY 4.0 — free to reuse with a link back",
 "note": "Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts (0-1). Rows with source 'backfill' are pre-tracking reference history from the market's own records, never published by us.",
 "outcomes": [
  {
   "name": "Yes",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-08-12",
     "probability": 0.19,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-14",
     "probability": 0.325,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-15",
     "probability": 0.325,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-20",
     "probability": 0.34,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-22",
     "probability": 0.335,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-23",
     "probability": 0.335,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-24",
     "probability": 0.335,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-25",
     "probability": 0.345,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-26",
     "probability": 0.335,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-27",
     "probability": 0.335,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-28",
     "probability": 0.335,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-29",
     "probability": 0.335,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-30",
     "probability": 0.265,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-31",
     "probability": 0.335,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-24",
     "probability": 0.37,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-28",
     "probability": 0.335,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-29",
     "probability": 0.405,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-09-30",
     "probability": 0.355,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-27",
     "probability": 0.385,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-28",
     "probability": 0.665,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-29",
     "probability": 0.525,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-30",
     "probability": 0.625,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-10-31",
     "probability": 0.62,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-11-03",
     "probability": 0.585,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
  }
 ]
}