{
 "question": "Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?",
 "url": "https://themorningline.news/odds/will-no-qualifying-diplomatic-us-iran-meeting-occur-by-september-30",
 "category": "other",
 "as_of": "2026-08-27",
 "first_tracked": "2026-07-15",
 "license": "CC BY 4.0 — free to reuse with a link back",
 "note": "Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts (0-1). Rows with source 'backfill' are pre-tracking reference history from the market's own records, never published by us.",
 "outcomes": [
  {
   "name": "Yes",
   "history": [
    {
     "date": "2026-07-15",
     "probability": 0.282,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-16",
     "probability": 0.1935,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-17",
     "probability": 0.2535,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-18",
     "probability": 0.3375,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-30",
     "probability": 0.3505,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-07-31",
     "probability": 0.3995,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-19",
     "probability": 0.7515,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-20",
     "probability": 0.767,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-21",
     "probability": 0.8065,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-22",
     "probability": 0.801,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-23",
     "probability": 0.739,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-24",
     "probability": 0.739,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-25",
     "probability": 0.7565,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-26",
     "probability": 0.7455,
     "source": "tracked"
    },
    {
     "date": "2026-08-27",
     "probability": 0.7885,
     "source": "tracked"
    }
   ]
  }
 ]
}